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UGG ブーツ 正規品 PE might twice. This calculation is not scientific

. In other words, the market does not necessarily mean high valuation has peaked, superior liquidity and negative real interest rates are still likely to continue to drive the market before the line. Government intervention in the stock market is the biggest risk. Beginning of this year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio. Government officials have recently expressed concern about the start of the stock market bubble,UGG ブーツ 正規品, but the introduction of the measures but does not seem keen. Reserve ratio by 0.5 percent, but the central bank is stranded 4% of excess reserves in the proposed 0.5 percent, move the excess statutory reserve account reserve account, the impact on the real economy and the liquidity is not great if there is no cross-border flow of funds between the cost of capital determines the valuation of the respective countries in the market. U.S. interest rates to 5.25%,アグ モカシン, PE move, is the biggest feature of the current bull market. China A shares rose 3000 points to 1000 points by the high valuation began to plague investors. A share of 35 times PE,UGG ブーツ 店舗, far higher than the world average PE 16 times, emerging markets PE 12 times the average level, which is the pessimists bearish market is a major basis. I do not agree with the PE relatively simple to identify the existence of the Chinese market bubble. Horizontal comparison valuation premise is that money can be cross-border flows, and the resulting valuation (after taking into account risk factors) of global convergence. This condition does not apply to Chinese investors. As the current capital controls, the vast majority of Chinese funds can not invest in stocks, bonds and commodities markets around the world. Their return is China's benchmark interest rate,UGG ブーツ アウトレット, rather than the world average PE. If there is no cross-border capital flows between the cost of capital determines the valuation of the respective countries in the market. U.S. interest rates to 5.25%, PE of 17 times. China's interest rate level is half American, PE might twice. This calculation is not scientific, does not take into account the risk premium on many factors, such as earnings growth expectations, but I think it is expressed in the relationship between the cost of capital and market valuation, there is some truth. In other words, the market does not necessarily mean high valuation has peaked, superior liquidity and negative real interest rates are still likely to continue to drive the market before the line. Government intervention in the stock market is the biggest risk. Beginning of this year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve ratio. Government officials have recently expressed concern about the start of the stock market bubble, but the introduction of the measures but does not seem keen. Reserve ratio by 0.5 percent, but the central bank is stranded 4% of excess reserves in the proposed 0.5 percent, move the excess statutory reserve account reserve account, the impact on the real economy and not much liquidity 17 times. China's interest rate level is half American, PE might twice. This calculation is not scientific,UGG ブーツ 人気,UGG ブーツ アウトレット, does not take into account the risk premium on many factors, such as earnings growth expectations, but I believe that the relationship between the expression on its cost of capital and market valuation, there is some truth
。换言之,估值偏高未必意味着大市已经见顶,超强流动性和实际负利率仍有可能继续推动市场前行。政府干预是目前股市的最大风险。新年伊始,央行便提高了存款准备金率。政府官员最近也开始对股市泡沬表示担忧,不过出台的措施却似乎并不激烈。准备金率上调0.5%,不过是将滞留央行的银行的4%超额准备金中提出0.5%,由超额准备金账户移至法定准备金账户,对实体经济和资金流动性的影响并不大如果资金之间不存在跨境流动,各国的资金成本决定了各自市场的估值。美国的利率水平为5.25%,PE动,是当前牛市的最大特征。中国A股由1000点升至3000点,估值偏高开始困扰投资者。A股PE为35倍,远高过世界平均PE 16倍,新兴市场平均PE 12倍的水平,这也是悲观论者看淡市场的一大依据。笔者不赞成简单地用PE比较来认定中国市场是否存在泡沬。估值横向比较的前提是资金可以跨境流动,由此带来估值(考虑风险因素后)的全球趋同。这个条件对于中国股民并不适用。由于现行的资本管制,绝大多数中国资金无法投向世界各地的股市、债市和商品市场。他们的回报标竿是中国的利率水平,而不是世界平均PE。如果资金之间不存在跨境流动,各国的资金成本决定了各自市场的估值。美国的利率水平为5.25%,PE为17倍。中国的利率水平是美国的一半,PE便可能高出一倍,UGG ブーツ 店舗。这种计算并不科学,没有考虑到风险溢价、盈利增长预期等许多因素,UGG ブーツ 人気,不过笔者认为它在表述资金成本与市场估值之间的关系上,有一定的道理。换言之,估值偏高未必意味着大市已经见顶,超强流动性和实际负利率仍有可能继续推动市场前行。政府干预是目前股市的最大风险。新年伊始,央行便提高了存款准备金率。政府官员最近也开始对股市泡沬表示担忧,不过出台的措施却似乎并不激烈。准备金率上调0.5%,不过是将滞留央行的银行的4%超额准备金中提出0,UGG ブーツ 正規品.5%,由超额准备金账户移至法定准备金账户,对实体经济和资金流动性的影响并不大为17倍。中国的利率水平是美国的一半,PE便可能高出一倍。这种计算并不科学,没有考虑到风险溢价、盈利增长预期等许多因素,不过笔者认为它在表述资金成本与市场估值之间的关系上,アグ モカシン,有一定的道理
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